Strengthening monetary policy and managing inflation expectations in Ukraine in conditions of maritime

Анотація

The article considers the current problem of strengthening monetary policy in Ukraine. Competent monetary measures of the NBU in the first months of the war ensured the smooth functioning of the banking system and payments in the economy. Fixing the exchange rate was ensured by currency restrictions, as well as foreign exchange interventions. The gradual adaptation of Ukraine's economy to the war and the replacement of psychological shock by economic logic require a change in approaches to monetary policy.
 The article substantiates the need to strengthen the monetary policy of the NBU. Strengthening the monetary policy of the NBU is aimed at compressing the money supply, and its effectiveness depends on the coordination of measures with the government.
 The way in which inflation expectations are formed influences the consequences of monetary policy. Therefore, the NBU, which aims at price stability, should take into account the inflation expectations of economic agents when planning monetary measures.
 Adaptive and rational hypotheses of inflation expectations are estimated. It is established that the reasons for the differences in the mechanisms of inflation expectations are explained by rational expectations and ways of disseminating information. It is concluded that the main focus in assessing monetary policy is to determine the characteristics of the factors shaping inflation expectations in Ukraine. The NBU can increase the effectiveness of monetary policy by developing and implementing measures to strengthen the impact on inflation expectations of economic agents.

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