Transformation of Transport Logistics in Ukraine’s Grain Market Under War Conditions

Анотація

The article examines the transformation of transport logistics in Ukraine’s grain market under the conditions of the full-scale war and identifies the key structural changes that have affected the functioning of domestic and international logistics flows. It is substantiated that the blockade of seaports and the destruction of transport infrastructure led to a sharp shift in the proportions between transport modes, an increased role of road and rail transport, and the activation of alternative export routes through Danube ports and EU land corridors. Based on an analysis of dynamic series for 2018–2024, changes in the structure of grain transportation are shown, in particular the decline in the share of maritime transport in 2022, increased loads on road and rail transport, as well as the gradual recovery of maritime logistics in 2024. An assessment of the impact of logistic constraints on transportation costs was conducted, and it was determined that the logistics component has become a critical factor in the competitiveness of Ukrainian grain in international markets. Based on structural, comparative, and situational analyses, the key risks of the transportation system and prospects for its recovery in the postwar period were identified. Conclusions are formulated regarding the strengthening of the resilience of logistics infrastructure and ensuring the sustainable functioning of the Ukrainian grain market.

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