Migration Processes and Their Role in the Formation of the State’s Financial Resources

Анотація

The article examines the impact of migration processes on the formation of the State’s financial resources in the context of globalization and the full-scale war in Ukraine. The aim is to study the impact of migration on the State’s financial resources, identify the key channels of such impact, and assess the positive and negative financial consequences for the national economy. The methodological basis consists of structural-functional, economic-statistical methods, comparative analysis of the dynamics of migration indicators, labor market indicators, and macro-financial parameters, systematization of empirical data, and the interconnections between migration processes and the State’s financial resources. It is substantiated that large-scale internal and external population migration has become a systemic factor in the transformation of public finances, the labor market, and macroeconomic resilience. The dynamics of migration flows, the number of Ukrainian migrants abroad, structural employment changes, and key unemployment trends from 2014 to 2024 have been analyzed. The main channels through which migration impacts State financial resources have been identified, including the migrant remittances channel, fiscal, social-budgetary, investment-financial, and macroeconomic channels. It has been demonstrated that remittances play an important stabilizing role, supporting foreign exchange inflows, the balance of payments, and household incomes; however, their ability to transform into productive investments remains limited. The dual nature of migration’s fiscal impact has been revealed, combining a reduction in the direct tax base with partial compensation for budgetary losses through increases in indirect tax revenues. It has been substantiated that the social-budgetary channel is characterized by rising expenditures on support for internally displaced persons and by increased long-term risks to the pension system. It was concluded that migration flows simultaneously generate short-term financial benefits and long-term risks to Ukraine’s economic recovery, highlighting the need to improve State policy in order to convert migration-driven financial flows into a resource for sustainable development.

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