POST-WAR DEVELOPMENT OF THE GREEN ECONOMY IN UKRAINE: MAIN SCENARIOS

Анотація

The article emphasizes that russia's military aggression against Ukraine causes not only huge destruction of the domestic industrial complex, settlements, energy infrastructure, but also harms the environment and society. The author emphasizes that solid foundations for the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine's economy on the basis of green growth are already being actively laid. It has been substantiated that the success of such reconstruction would depend on a number of factors and circumstances, which should be collectively taken into account within the scenario approach to assessment and forecasting. The author has proposed a list of key principles of scenario forecasting of the post-war development of the green economy in Ukraine. It has been emphasized that when developing scenarios, different approaches should be used and forecasting models should be developed. The latest usually differ in both the set of factors and their disposition. The dominant megatrends of Ukraine's competitive development in global coordinates which would affect the formation of scenario factors, have been characterized. Criterion features for the formation of green economy development scenarios have been defined. Four scenarios of the post-war development of the green economy in Ukraine for the period until 2050 have been substantiated. The description of the author's scenario of returning to the brown economy of the pre-war period has been given (the first scenario). The author sees the second possible scenario of the post-war development of the green economy in Ukraine as a focus on the development of the bioeconomy. The scenario of the post-war development of a circular economy model based on a zero ecological footprint in Ukraine (the third scenario of the development of a green economy) has been described and characterized. These scenarios have been compared with the fourth scenario related to the formation of a full-scale green economy in Ukraine. The author justifies that the most likely is the implementation of the third scenario in Ukraine – the development of a circular economy based on a zero ecological footprint.

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