The Relationship Between Trading Volumes on the Stock Market and International Stock Indices Under Martial Law

Анотація

The article emphasizes the importance of the stock market for the economy of any country, considering its role in stimulating economic growth and outlining its main functions. The study aims to conduct an analytical examination of the dynamics and structure of trading volumes at operators of Ukraine’s organized capital markets to identify the strength of their connection with leading international stock indices and determine the most informative indicator for predicting market changes. The study applies methods of structural and dynamic analysis to assess transformations of the domestic stock market over 2019–2025. Correlation analysis was used to determine the strength and direction of the relationship between exchange trading volumes in Ukraine and global financial indicators. The process of consolidation in the domestic stock market has been examined, revealing a shift in the vector of market activity under martial law and inflationary pressure. The PFTS Stock Exchange was identified as the leader compared to «Perspektyva» Stock Exchange during the wartime period, which is linked to different levels of operator adaptability to crisis conditions. The changes in the structure of financial instruments were analyzed: the dominance of government bonds was accompanied by the emergence of new assets. It was found that martial law stimulated the development of foreign currency trading as a risk mitigation tool. A strong direct correlation between the total trading volume in Ukraine and international indices was demonstrated. The highest correlation coefficient was observed with the European index DJ Euro STOXX 50, indicating a high level of synchronization of the domestic market with the European financial space. The impact of martial law on the functioning of the stock market has been examined through the lens of correlation with global indicators. It has been determined that regional European indices possess the greatest predictive power for the Ukrainian market amid European integration processes. The study results can be used by regulators and investors to build forecasting models for stock market development and to evaluate the

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