INSTRUMENTS OF ANTI-CRISIS ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT IN UKRAINE AMIDST WARTIME AND GLOBAL THREATS

Анотація

The article is devoted to a comprehensive study of the historical aspects of identifying economic crises and a quantitative analysis of the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policy within the system of anti-crisis management of Ukraine’s economy during 2012–2025. The purpose of the article is to analyze the strength and nature of the relationships between key indicators of monetary and fiscal policy in the system of macrofinancial risk and crisis management, and to develop a resource-institutional approach to anti-crisis management of the state’s financial system. The research is based on general scientific methods, including synthesis, analysis, the historical-logical method, and the statistical method of sign correlation (Fechner’s correlation coefficient). The analysis of monetary and fiscal indicators confirmed certain expected relationships between variables, in particular: a direct effect of money supply expansion on the depreciation of the hryvnia; a strong direct impact of an increase in the state budget deficit on the volume of public debt. Furthermore, the study identified several atypical interdependencies stemming from the specific design of the state's financial policy during wartime, namely: a weak direct impact of the NBU's key policy rate increases on the volume of bank lending, and a weak inverse relationship between state budget expenditures and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). In addition, the article examines the relationships between monetary and fiscal indicators and traditional measures of financial system performance, such as the Corruption Perceptions Index, the Global Crypto Adoption Index, the level of the shadow economy, and the volume of foreign direct investment. The article also proposes a resource-institutional approach to anti-crisis management, which includes: a resource block (the resources available to the state and used to prevent or overcome crises); an institutional block (formal and informal state institutions whose functioning determines the capacity for anti-crisis management); as well as strategic directions, policy measures, and the expected outcomes of anti-crisis management. Keywords: monetary policy, fiscal policy, cryptocurrency, foreign direct investment, financial security, Corruption Perceptions Index, anti-crisis management.

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