Ukraine’s Economy: Resilience Under War and Challenges for Post-War Recovery

Анотація

Introduction. The war has an unprecedented negative effect on the Ukrainian economy and society, the socioeconomic consequences of which require a thorough assessment and scientific understanding.Problem Statement. Strategic, programmatic and model developments regarding the post-war reconstructive recovery of Ukraine should take into account the main determinants of the national economy resilience and the challenges facing it in the global coordinates of the hybrid “peace—war” system.Purpose. To identify the effect of military shocks in macroeconomic, macro-financial, and social aspects for the period of February 2022 — April 2024, as well as the main risks and challenges of the Ukraine’s post-war recovery.Materials and Methods. Materials and statistical data of relevant domestic and international institutions have been used. The methods employed are as follows: dialectical and logical-historical, statistical, tabular-graphic, institutional methodology, cyclical and world-system analysis, macroeconomic aggregation, time series analysis.Results. The effect of military shocks has caused significant damage to Ukraine, but overall, over the two years of war, the country has been demonstrating socio-economic resilience. However, there are serious challenges and risks for the resilience and economic recovery of the post-war Ukraine, the most important of which are the continuation of the war on Ukrainian territory, high level of corruption, dependence on external financing, and the growth of the demo-economic burden and poverty.Conclusions. The full-scale war in Ukraine is a component of the global, very complex and long-term process of reformatting the world order and can be adequately assessed only in the context of the global hybrid “peace—war" system. In the present-day conditions of signifi cant global uncertainty, the contextual model of national development, which is based on the activation of Ukraine’s own resource potential, can ensure resilience of our country.

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