ORGANIZATIONAL AND ECONOMIC MECHANISMS OF MONITORING AND ANNOUNCEMENT OF EMERGENCY SITUATIONS

Анотація

The article deals with the mechanism of monitoring and forecasting of emergencies in Ukraine. It is established that the improvement of the mechanism of monitoring and forecasting of dangerous phenomena and events is defined by the Concept of development of the security and defense sector of Ukraine, approved by Presidential Decree No. 92/2016 of March 14, 2016 “On the Concept of development of the security and defense sector of Ukraine”. It is determined that to solve the problem it is necessary to create an effective tool for control over hazardous processes, to obtain monitoring information, to predict risks of occurrence of dangerous events and emergencies, and to support management decisions – subsystems of the general mechanism. As a result of the conducted researches it is established that today there are over one hundred different methods and methods of forecasting, the most actively of which are used: modeling; expert assessments; extrapolation. Each of them has both advantages and disadvantages. Therefore, experts are guided by the genetic nature of the projected phenomenon, the factors of influence, the reliability of the input information, and so on. An important method of forecasting environmental development is exponential smoothing. According to it, each element of the time series is smoothed by the weighted average current, and its weight decreases as the distance from the end of the series. The main advantage of this method is its greater adaptability and sensitivity when entering new data for forecasting. On the basis of the conducted research, separate indices are foreseen for Ukraine as a whole. In the long term, this approach can be applied regionally by individual components, taking into account territorial differences and offsetting their impact on forecasting results.

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