Energy transition in coal-dependent economies: a panel data approach

Анотація

Abstract Renewable energy adoption is shaped by economic, structural, and policy factors, but their relative influence varies across countries. This study examines the roles of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), coal consumption, and national policies in renewable energy deployment in ten countries from 1990 to 2024. Using panel regressions, partial regression plots, and Difference-in-Differences analysis, we evaluate how economic size, energy structure, and policy interventions affect renewable energy shares. Results show that globally, renewable energy shares increased steadily by about 0.35 percentage points per year. GDP has a modest positive effect, while coal consumption is more strongly associated with renewables, reflecting parallel expansion of energy systems in high-demand economies. Country-level analysis reveals significant heterogeneity: Germany, China, the United States, and India consistently exceed predictions, whereas South Africa, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine underperform. Policy interventions are confirmed to have measurable impacts, with early adopters achieving the largest gains. Ukraine, for example, could accelerate adoption by strengthening policies, providing incentives, simplifying approvals, and fostering international cooperation. Overall, renewable energy transitions depend not only on economic and structural factors but also on effective governance and policy frameworks.

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