The Statistical Relationship Between Defense Spending and Economic Growth in Ukraine: A Comparative Regression Analysis

Анотація

Purpose. To identify and quantitatively interpret the statistical relationship between defence expenditure and economic growth in Ukraine amidst ongoing security challenges, as well as to clarify the specific characteristics of the Ukrainian case through comparison with Turkey and Georgia. Method: This is an empirical study. The data set comprises World Bank statistics for 2014–2023 on military expenditure and real gross domestic product for Ukraine, Turkey and Georgia. The study employs methods of generalisation, comparison, dynamic analysis, linear regression and analysis of the residuals of the regression model. Findings. For Ukraine, a strong inverse statistical relationship has been established between defence expenditure and real gross domestic product. The correlation coefficient is -0.897, and the coefficient of determination is 0.804. A comparative analysis showed that Turkey is characterised by a weak positive relationship, whilst Georgia is characterised by a strong positive relationship. Theoretical implications. The study deepens the scientific understanding of the context-dependent relationship between defence expenditure and economic growth in developing countries. Practical implications. The findings can be used as an analytical basis for further research into the macroeconomic consequences of defence funding in conditions of security instability. Value. The originality of the work lies in combining regression analysis of the Ukrainian case with a comparative analysis of Turkey and Georgia. Limitations / directions for further research. The limitations of the study include the use of simple linear regression and a limited time period. Further research should focus on expanding the sample, including additional macroeconomic variables, and applying more complex econometric models. Paper type. Empirical.

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