Economic consequences of the Russian-Ukrainian war for European security

Анотація

Introduction. The article examines the economic consequences of the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war on the pan-European security system in general, and its two main participants, Russia as an aggressor and Ukraine as a victim of aggression. The USA and Western countries, in particular the EU, after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, introduced unprecedented sanctions against Russia, which were supposed to significantly limit the financial possibilities of waging war. Instead, by helping Ukraine in military and humanitarian aspects, the West hoped to reduce the negative economic consequences of the invasion and the ability to conduct an effective defense. The goal is theoretical substantiation of the hypothesis regarding the negative impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war on the economic growth of EU countries, Ukraine, and Russia, and its empirical verification regarding possible problems of financing the transformation of the European security system in response to Russia’s hybrid threats.  Methods. In the framework of this study, general and special research methods were used in the context of the economic consequences of the Russian-Ukrainian war for European security, Russia and Ukraine. In particular, a comparative analysis of the economic growth of the EU, Ukraine and Russia for 2022-2024 with a graphic illustration of the obtained research results using the Python program. Methods of generalization and synthesis for empirical confirmation or refutation of the formulated hypothesis. The results. The hypothesis regarding the expected negative economic consequences of the Russian-Ukrainian war for the pan-European security system was not empirically confirmed. The negative economic consequences of sanctions pressure on the economy of Russia, which during the war years has fully adapted to the existing realities and still has enough resources to continue it, have not been confirmed. The hypothesis was confirmed only in relation to Ukraine, whose total losses from the war exceeds 1 trillion dollars and continues to grow. Prospects for further research. Of great interest is the formation of alternative paradigms of international economic relations on the European security system in the context of the development of new approaches to cooperation with Russia and China, including the analysis of the risks and opportunities they represent for international stability.

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