DEVELOPMENT OF THE CREDIT SERVICES MARKET UNDER ECONOMIC INSTABILITY AND CYCLICAL FLUCTUATIONS

Анотація

The article examines the specific features of the functioning of Ukraine’s credit services market under conditions of economic instability and significant fluctuations in macro-financial indicators. The relevance of the study is driven by the increasing cyclicality of economic processes, high volatility of monetary conditions, the transformation of bank and borrower behavior during crisis periods, and the need to develop effective regulatory response mechanisms. The purpose of the study is to analyze the development patterns of the credit services market of Ukraine in an environment of economic instability and to identify key problems and trends that determine the current state and prospects of the credit market. The paper summarizes theoretical approaches of scholars to defining the categories “credit market” and “market of credit services”, and systematizes research directions – from conceptual foundations and structural characteristics to risk analysis, digitalization, and institutional support. Based on empirical data, the dynamics of key indicators of the Ukrainian credit market for 2012 – 2024 are analyzed, including changes in real and nominal GDP, the behavior of the NBU key policy rate, and interest rates on new loans. The study reveals significant cyclical fluctuations, asymmetry in the market’s reaction to monetary policy signals, and a moderate elasticity of credit interest rates with respect to the key policy rate. It is demonstrated that under deep macroeconomic shocks, banks tend to act with increased caution by reducing risk appetite and tightening credit supply, while borrowers face higher financing costs and declining solvency. Particular attention is paid to the impact of digital transformation on the resilience of the credit market and the expansion of access to financial services during periods of turbulence. As a result of the study, conclusions are drawn regarding the specific features of the credit services market in different phases of the business cycle; key factors influencing its development are identified; and potential directions for enhancing regulatory efficiency and strengthening financial stability are outlined. The findings can be applied in further academic research as well as in the practical activities of banking institutions and financial regulators.

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