RECESSION OR RECOVERY: THE FIFTH STAGE OF THE KONDRATIEV WAVE

Анотація

The research is based on the analysis of the main theories that determine the characteristics of economic scientific schools, the basis of their factor analysis of the impact on crises and tools for their levelling. The main mathematical models are analysed, which aim to determine the main cycles of crisis phenomena in the world economy. With the help of historical and logical analysis, the article provides the genesis of the main crisis manifestations in the world economy. The method of systematization and comparison made it possible to identify the main stages of crises and systematize their influencing factors. The mathematical basis of the research was the construction of the last cycles of the Kondratiev waves and the confirmation of one of the two “positioning” forecasts of the modern stage of the global economy’s collapse in accordance with the Kondratiev waves. The predictive assessment of the further scenario of the development of the crisis is supplemented by analytical reports of international organizations such as UN, the IMF and the World Bank Group. The used methods and methodology made it possible to achieve the goal of the research, which is aimed at identifying the fifth Kandratiev wave and forming a forecast scenario of the economic development of the world economy.

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