MACROECONOMIC FORECAST FOR UKRAINE IN 2026: TRENDS, RISKS AND RESILIENCE STRATEGIES

Анотація

The article provides a comprehensive analysis of macroeconomic forecasts for Ukraine in 2026 amid the ongoing war with Russia, energy crisis and geopolitical instability. It substantiates the key role of external assistance in maintaining macrofinancial stability, as well as the impact of structural factors such as labor shortages, infrastructure destruction and inflationary processes on economic indicators. Based on data from the National Bank of Ukraine, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and independent analytical centers, forecasts for GDP growth and inflation are analyzed. Key trends are identified: a slowdown in GDP growth due to energy attacks, a slowdown in inflation under stable monetary policy. The main risks are revealed, including dependence on aid, demographic crisis and global recession. Adaptive strategies are summarized: diversification of energy, labor market reforms, fiscal consolidation and strengthening of European integration. A conceptual approach to sustainable development is formed, combining scenario planning, risk management and investment in human capital. Recommendations for public policy and business are proposed, aimed at minimizing vulnerabilities, ensuring growth and preparing for post-war recovery

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