Ukraine: Geopolitical realities and regional development perspectives

Анотація

After the Russian Federation started the military attack and aggressive war against Ukraine on February 24 2022, the rules-based world order has experienced unprecedented threats on its values, where the prohibition of use of force, human rights, democracy, and rule of law are key principles and are deemed to be adhered to worldwide.For Europe, this is the biggest war the continent faces after the Second World War, leading to the principal unity of all democratic European states concerning the assistance for Ukraine during the war time.At the same time, it is showing the weaknesses of global and regional cooperation fora and highlighting the need for a new concept for the post-war international order, where the regional dimensions will play the crucial role.This task requires the reconsideration of Ukraine's role on regional and global maps as the key factor for ensuring peace, security, and economic stability.Ukraine changed recently its position from a 'decision-taker' on international processes to a decisionmaker, since the Ukrainian peace formula is on the negotiation table as a model for the post-war regulation in many countries worldwide.Recent security initiatives with reviving the idea of Lublin Triangle focusing on deepening cooperation between Poland, Lithuania, and Ukraine, are facing aggressive threats while the political influence and potential of Ukraine as a regional political actor are growing.Geographically, Ukraine is situated at a major crossroad, where two great geopolitical projects collide: the European integration versus Russia's efforts to hold into its sphere of influence over the former Soviet republics (Gladysh et al., 2020;Simionov & Pascariu, 2017).Under these circumstances, Ukrianian society has been split between the two geopolitical choices, and since the fall of the Soviet Union has tried to balance both projects to their own national interests (Korosteleva, 2010;Moga et al., 2021;Nitoiu & Simionov, 2022).As such, both the EU (along with the United States) and Russia continue to play critical roles in Ukraine's evolution and development.Stacked between such powerful external actors, the post-Soviet states have primarily developed multi-vector foreign policies (Gnedina, 2015).This implies building friendly relations with various external actors, and successfully managing the neighborhood (Dentinho, 2020;Malskyy et al., 2020;Pascariu et al., 2020) while ensuring none of these bilateral ties antagonizes the other external actors.For example, Ukraine has, more or less successfully managed to

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