STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT OF MIGRATION POLICY IN THE CONDITIONS OF POST-WAR RECONSTRUCTION OF UKRAINE

Анотація

The purpose of the article is to conduct a comprehensive analysis of migration processes and develop an integrated model for their management in the conditions of post-war reconstruction of Ukraine, which will allow turning the return of citizens and the involvement of foreign specialists into a driver of structural GDP growth, rather than an additional source of fiscal burden and social tension. The research methodology is based on the application of methods of comparative analysis of international practices of overcoming crises (the experience of Germany, Jamaica), systematization of analytical materials of international and national institutions (IMF, World Bank, NBU), as well as on the adaptation of the PDCA quality management cycle as an integrative tool for the formation of migration policy. Results. It is substantiated that the involvement of foreign workers does not create direct competition, but generates a large-scale specialization effect, which increases the overall productivity of local highly qualified specialists through the redistribution of routine tasks. It is proven that the fiscal impact of the migratory population depends on the speed of economic integration. It was found that the real impact of the migration factor on the growth of real estate prices is insignificant, while cost inflation and structural supply shortage are the determining factors. A transition to eliminating the root causes of emigration through preventive market mechanisms is proposed, in particular through the introduction of parametric risk insurance instruments and the issuance of sovereign diaspora bonds to transform private transfers into capital investments for national reconstruction. The scientific novelty of the research results lies in the conceptual rethinking of the nature of migration from the format of a traditional demographic threat to a structural factor of economic modernization, as well as in the formation of an author's model that adapts the PDCA management cycle to migration policy, taking into account post-war challenges. The practical significance of the article is determined by the possibility of using the proposed actions by state administration bodies when forming targeted labor reintegration programs, developing simplified permit mechanisms for foreign specialists, and attracting diaspora capital. The proposed approach allows the state to assess the effectiveness of recovery not only by the volume of rebuilt infrastructure, but also by the number of preserved and newly created permanent jobs.

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