Illicit Trade of Raw Materials in Logistics Sanctions Circumvention: Causes and Consequences

Анотація

This research explores the illicit trade of raw materials as a response to logistics sanctions, focusing on the interplay between sanctioned and non-sanctioned countries through regional trade agreements. The study's findings reveal that the high economic value of critical raw materials and disruptions to legitimate supply chains have catalyzed the emergence of illicit trade networks. Methodologically, moderation, reliability, and correlation analyses were employed, demonstrating that logistics sanctions positively influence unauthorized interactions with countries (NCI = 0.43, p < 0.05) and significantly impact supply shortages (SS = 0.64, p < 0.05), customs regime (CR = 0.42, p < 0.05), transaction values (TV = 0.25, p < 0.05), and the establishment of alternative routes (AR = 0.39, p < 0.05). Notably, regional trade agreements did not mitigate these relationships. This research underscores the need to understand how regional trade dynamics facilitate sanction evasion, thereby influencing the frameworks of illicit trade and logistical operations.

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