Leveraging crisis-driven adaptation and regional resilience for sustainable development management in conflict-affected economies

Анотація

Purpose: Ukraine has undergone profound economic crises since 2014 and, from 2022, a full-scale armed conflict, which has reshaped regional development trajectories and sustainability. This study examines regional adaptive responses to inform policies that enhance resilience and support sustainable recovery of Ukraine. Methodology: A mixed-methods approach was employed, integrating Coefficient of Localization (CL) and Coefficient of Specialization (CS) metrics, regional economic indicators, and spatial analysis to assess structural transformations. Findings: Following the 2014 crisis in Ukraine, the macroeconomy stabilized by 2016 but sharply declined (-29%) in 2023 due to infrastructure destruction and conflict. Regional analysis reveals pronounced asymmetries and specialization patterns. Kyiv maintained high concentration in finance (CL > 1.0) and ICT (CL 0.73-0.89). Western regions, including Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Zakarpattia, and Khmelnytskyi, strengthened specialization, with CS rising from 0.39→0.70 in Lviv and 0.14→0.59 in Khmelnytskyi due to internal migration and business relocation. Eastern centers, particularly Donetsk and Luhansk, declined, with CL for mining dropping 0.92→0.75 and CS remaining vulnerable (0.29→0.42). Labor mobility intensified post-2021 (Coefficient of Redistribution, CRed, 0.32 in healthcare, 0.26 in mining), while ICT and finance remained stable (Cred ≤ 0.09), and agriculture increased from 0.016→0.15, absorbing displaced workers. These results highlight dual dynamics: adaptive capacity and sectoral diversification in western and central regions versus vulnerability in eastern regions. Emerging resilience patterns link to industrial transformation, logistics restructuring, and growth of high-value sectors, underlining the need for targeted policies to promote balanced growth, strengthen resilience, and support post-conflict reconstruction. Originality: This study provides a comprehensive, spatially nuanced assessment of regional resilience under prolonged economic crises and armed conflict, highlighting sector-specific adaptive capacities and informing targeted policies for balanced growth and post-conflict reconstruction.

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