НЕЛІНІЙНА ФІСКАЛЬНА РЕАКЦІЯ НА РИНКАХ ГРАЛЬНОГО БІЗНЕСУ В УМОВАХ ПІСЛЯ ЛЕГАЛІЗАЦІЇ

Анотація

This research examines the non-linear dynamics of tax revenues generated by the gambling sector in Ukraine following its legalization, covering the period 2021–2025. The primary objective is to assess whether fiscal reactions are proportional or instead characterized by asymmetry and dependence on specific economic regimes.To achieve this, a comprehensive multi-stage methodological approach is applied, combining structural break analysis, threshold regression techniques, non-linear ARDL modelling, GARCH-based volatility assessment, and a specialized Revenue–Volatility–Elasticity (RVE) analytical framework.The empirical findings indicate notable structural transformations during 2023–2024, which coincide with periods of accelerated market growth, temporary overshooting, and eventual stabilization. The fiscal response demonstrates clear asymmetry: negative shocks to revenues lead to significantly larger reductions in profit-based tax income than the increases observed during positive shocks. Additionally, volatility proves to be persistent and more intense in response to adverse shocks, highlighting the vulnerability of the gambling-related tax base.In general, the results confirm that tax revenues from Ukraine’s legalized gambling sector evolve in a non-linear manner and are highly sensitive to external and internal shocks. This emphasizes the importance of implementing fiscal forecasting models that account for volatility and potential regime shifts.

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