DEVELOPING AN INTEGRAL INDEX OF GLOBAL VALUE CHAIN DESTABILIZATION UNDER GEOPOLITICAL TRANSFORMATIONS

Анотація

The article substantiates a theoretical and methodological approach to assessing the destabilization of Global Value Chains (GVCs) under conditions of geopolitical transformations and growing uncertainty in the world economy. It is determined that contemporary destabilization processes in the functioning of Global Value Chain are multidimensional in nature and manifest through trade, price, structural, logistics, and sanction-institutional channels of influence. It is argued that existing approaches are mainly focused on measuring participation in GVCs, resilience, or vulnerability to individual risks, while insufficient attention has been paid to the integrated assessment of cumulative destabilization effects. In response to this research gap, the study proposes an original integral GVC Destabilization Index (GVCDI), which combines key destabilization factors within a unified analytical framework and enables a quantitative assessment of the cumulative impact of external shocks on the functioning of global production networks. A system of indicators has been developed to form the individual components of the index, including measures of foreign trade dynamics, price volatility, supply diversification based on the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index, logistics efficiency, and sanctions impact. The methodological approach is based on the use of relative changes in indicators and their weighted aggregation, which ensures comparability of results across countries with different economic structures and levels of integration into global value chains. The empirical approbation of the proposed approach confirms significant differentiation in the level of GVC destabilization across countries and reveals the dominant role of supply diversification as a factor of resilience. The results indicate that economies with more diversified import structures demonstrate greater adaptive capacity to external shocks, whereas concentration of supply increases vulnerability and contributes to higher destabilization levels. It is also established that logistics and sanctions factors act as channels for transmitting and amplifying destabilization processes, while structural characteristics of the economy have a stronger impact on the level of destabilization than individual shock factors. The practical significance of the study lies in the possibility of using the proposed index as a tool for monitoring GVC vulnerability, conducting cross-country comparisons, identifying dominant destabilization channels, and supporting decision-making in the field of economic policy aimed at strengthening the resilience of global production networks. Keywords: global value chains; GVC destabilization; integral index; geopolitical transformations; supply diversification; logistics risks; sanctions impact; international trade; economic resilience.

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