Export-Oriented Model of Economic Development in Ukraine: A Retrospective Analysis

Анотація

The aim of the article is to conduct a retrospective analysis of parameter dynamics and to identify trends in the export-oriented growth of Ukraine’s national economy, as well as to determine the prerequisites for the formation of its current level of adaptability. To achieve this aim, the authors carried out a comprehensive analysis of the dynamics of macroeconomic and foreign trade indicators of Ukraine’s economy in order to uncover long-term trends, internal imbalances, and structural transformations that influenced the trajectory of economic growth during 1995–2024. As a basic indicator of the national economy’s development, the authors used GDP per capita and analyzed the synchrony of changes in this indicator with the per capita export volume. The authors found that the growth of macroeconomic and foreign trade indicators during the observation period was fragmented, without forming a stable long-term development trajectory under the influence of global and local crises, one of the most significant of which was initially a hidden hybrid, and later overt military aggression by the russian federation against Ukraine. It has been found that the negative long-term impact on the development of the Ukrainian economy is caused by its structural degradation, which is manifested in the persistent and growing dominance of raw material and low-processed product exports, as well as in the long-term trend of declining economic complexity. Based on the results of the conducted research, the authors conclude that Ukraine’s export-oriented economic development model is highly unstable and systemically vulnerable, as evidenced by the large amplitude of economic fluctuations alongside the high sensitivity of macroeconomic indicators to external and internal shocks. To create the conditions for sustainable long-term growth, the authors emphasize the need to increase the technological complexity of industrial production, diversify exports by product and geography, integrate into global value chains, and foster innovation-driven development.

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