ANALYSIS OF BUSINESS LENDING PROBLEMS IN UKRAINE

Анотація

The paper considers and analyzes the reasons for the decline in lending in Ukraine. Bank business lending in Ukraine is characterized by high cost; the world's worst quality loans. Moreover, the low profitability (and even loss) of most businesses leads to a small number of creditworthy businesses. It is determined that for the first time in the history of observation, lending in UAH equivalent decreased in 2019. And the results of the calculations revealed that the strengthening of the hryvnia makes only half of the impact. Another factor is the decline in new lending. Based on the materials of banks' balance sheets and the content of their sites, the banks were identified where the lending decreased most significantly. The lending conditions are clearly less attractive than in banks where lending is increasing. A study of the data of the Bank of International Settlements showed that among the 43 countries of the world, as of 01.04.2019, the leaders in the growth of business lending are countries that show high economic growth, that is, mainly, emerging market economies. The paper hypothesizes that there is a positive effect of non-financial banking lending on economic innovation (measured through the Global Innovation Index), which is statistically confirmed. Also there was found a causal relationship between the fact a significant increase in business loans and a change in the country's Doing Business rating. For example, reducing credit indicators in the country by 8-18% per year lowers the ease of doing business by 4-6 positions. In this study there were generalized steps to overcome the reasons for the decline in lending in Ukraine and the desirable actions of bank employees in such conditions (sufficient diversification of loans by industry, active use of scenario analysis of customer business development, etc.). This made it clear that without significant involvement of the state, significant shifts in the area of business lending cannot be expected. Keywords: credit, non-financial sector, business lending, bank, enterprise, risk.

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