Impact of European integration processes on the change in the commodity structure of Ukraine’s exports and imports in the conditions of military aggression

Анотація

Introduction. Full-scale military aggression has caused fundamental shifts in Ukraine’s foreign trade balance, turning European integration into a key factor for economic survival and strategic adaptation. The transformation of the commodity structure of exports and imports, amidst the destruction of traditional logistics chains and production capacities, necessitates a rethinking of state regulation mechanisms to ensure national security and economic resilience. Purpose. To substantiate the influence of European integration processes on the dynamics and qualitative changes in the commodity structure of Ukraine’s foreign trade under war conditions, and to develop a classification of regulation tools to enhance economic complexity. Method (methodology). The study employs methods of system analysis and synthesis to assess structural shifts, comparative analysis to contrast pre-war and war-time trade indicators, the abstract-logical method for classifying tools, and the graphical method for visualizing statistical data Results. The essence of the commodity structure is revealed as a dynamic system reflecting the state’s level of economic complexity and security resilience. Data analysis identified a trend towards the simplification of the export basket (dominance of agricultural raw materials) and a critical increase in imports of energy resources and machinery from EU countries. A scientific-methodological approach to classifying foreign trade regulation tools into four functional groups is proposed: regulatory-restrictive, fiscal-stimulatory, logistics-infrastructural, and institutional-integrational. It is proven that the Solidarity Lanes initiative and the trade liberalization regime with the EU became critical economic stabilizers but created risks of entrenching a raw material model.

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