COGNITIVE APPROACH TO ASSESSMENT AND FORECASTING OF FINANCIAL STABILITY INDICATORS OF AGRO-INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX ENTERPRISES

Анотація

The main aspects of the introduction of a cognitive approach to assessing and forecasting indicators of financial stability of the enterprises of the agro-industrial complex, which allows increasing the competitiveness of the enterprises in conditions of uncertainty, have been substantiated. The financial statements of enterprises were used, which allowed, on the basis of calculation of current liquidity, solvency, maneuverability of equity, provision of own working capital, financial leverage and autonomy, to determine the intervals of values for the analyzed indicators and parameters (vertices) of trapezoidal functions. The «Fuzzy Logic Toolbox» is used according to the algorithm of fuzzy output of the Mamdani software package «MATLAB») in order to construct the boundary of linguistic term-sets of evaluation criteria for processing inaccurate, incomplete or contradictory data, which is typical for real economic situations. A model for assessing the financial stability of the enterprises of the agro-industrial complex has been built, which is a matrix in which five qualitative levels («very low», «low», «medium», «high» and «very high») are the columns of the matrix, and the analyzed indicators are the rows of the matrix, their intersection, in turn, are the levels of belonging of quantitative levels of factors to certain qualitative classes. The membership levels in fuzzy subsets were calculated from the term set of variable values and the quantitative value of the aggregated indicator, which allowed linguistic recognition of the degree of financial stability of the enterprises of agro-industrial complex. A classifier of levels of the aggregate indicator is proposed, in order to substantiate the financial stability of the enterprises of the agro-industrial complex based on the correspondence of the calculated values to the conditions of stable or unstable state. The most significant factors of influence on the enterprises of the agro-industrial complex in the context of strengthening competitiveness and stability in the market during the construction of graph models of the first and second levels of determining the financial stability of enterprises of the agro-industrial complex in a dynamic environment have been identified.

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