ADAPTATION OF SMALL AND MEDIUM-SIZED ENTERPRISES IN UKRAINE TO DIGITALIZATION: BARRIERS, OPPORTUNITIES, AND PROSPECTS

Анотація

The article is devoted to assessing adaptation models of small and medium-sized enterprises in Ukraine under conditions of accelerated digital transformation of the economy. The purpose of the study is to identify structural barriers, provide a quantitative diagnosis of the level of digital maturity, and substantiate strategic directions for integrating digital solutions into the SME management system. The analytical framework combines statistical analysis of indicators for 2021–2025, comparison of sectoral differences, and modeling of forecast scenarios up to 2030. The empirical base was formed from data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, analytical reports of the European Business Association, and international studies on enterprise digital integration. The research applies methods of structural and functional analysis, index-based assessment of digital maturity, and scenario forecasting. The indicators are aligned with parameters of financial stability, human resource capacity, and infrastructure accessibility. The results record uneven digital integration across sectors. The share of enterprises using cloud services exceeded 60%, whereas comprehensive ERP solutions cover less than one-third of SMEs. The digital competence index of personnel fluctuates within 0.45–0.50, which constrains the effectiveness of innovation implementation. A relationship was identified between the level of process automation and productivity growth: digitally integrated companies demonstrate higher revenue dynamics and a reduction in operating costs. At the same time, financial barriers and regulatory instability shorten the horizon of strategic planning. The forecast up to 2030 envisages the transition of a part of SMEs to the third level of digital maturity with active use of data analytics and AI solutions. Scenario analysis confirms an increase in the share of digital investments in enterprise budgets to 25–30%. The economic effect is manifested through enhanced managerial flexibility, expansion of export opportunities, and optimization of the cost structure. The scientific novelty lies in combining quantitative diagnosis of barriers with a forecast model of digital maturity of Ukrainian SMEs. The practical significance of the results consists of developing tools for the strategic adaptation of SMEs to the principles of the digital economy.

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