Transformation of Ukraine’s medium-term public debt management strategy under martial law and post-war reconstruction

Анотація

Introduction. Full-scale war has profoundly transformed Ukraine’s public finance system, making medium-term public debt management a strategic instrument for preserving macrofinancial stability, ensuring the continuity of the budget process, and building the resource base for post-war reconstruction. Against this background, the study is relevant because sovereign debt policy in wartime extends far beyond deficit financing and becomes closely linked to defense needs, social resilience, external support, and the long-term recovery of the economy. The purpose of the article is to substantiate the transformation of Ukraine’s medium-term public debt management strategy under martial law and to identify its key priorities in the context of post-war reconstruction. The methodological basis of the study combines systemic, structural-functional, comparative, and analytical-synthetic approaches, which make it possible to trace changes in the goals, instruments, and institutional foundations of debt policy. Results. The article substantiates the transformation of the medium-term strategy for managing the public debt of Ukraine under the influence of the growing budget deficit, increasing dependence on preferential external financing, the development of the domestic market for military government securities, and the need to coordinate debt decisions with budget planning and recovery programs. It is established that the debt strategy has evolved from a model focused on optimizing the cost of servicing, currency structure, and maturity of obligations to a model of financial resilience that combines maintaining budget liquidity, controlling debt risks, strengthening institutional coordination, and ensuring the prerequisites for post-war modernization of the economy. Conclusions. In the context of post-war reconstruction, the medium-term strategy for managing the public debt must combine debt sustainability with recovery needs. This means maintaining the priority of long-term preferential financing, developing the domestic market for government securities in the national currency, strengthening risk monitoring, and coordinating debt decisions with sectoral programs for economic modernization. Prospects for further research should be linked to a quantitative assessment of the sustainability parameters of Ukraine's debt strategy in various reconstruction scenarios, a comparison of the grant and loan components of external support, as well as modeling the impact of the currency structure of debt, the payment schedule, and contingent liabilities on the medium-term trajectory of public finance.

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