INVESTMENTS AS A FACTOR FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DIGITALIZATION OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN THE CONDITIONS OF TURBULENCE IN THE WORLD ECONOMY

Анотація

The article explores the role of investment in the transformation of the architecture of international trade through digitalization mechanisms. The theoretical basis for the study of investment as a driver of the digitalization of international trade is formed, based on the theories of neoclassical economics and modern concepts of the digital economy. The main stages of the digitalization of international trade are summarized, which include the stages of automation and creation of an infrastructure base, the development of platformization and e-commerce, the development of intellectualization and the ecosystem approach. The cause-and-effect relationships between the accumulation of capital (investments) and the technological transformation of international exchange processes are determined, and attention is focused on the fact that in this process each subsequent phase is determined by the depth of investment penetration into the structure of trade transactions. The main directions of the impact of investment on the digitalization of international trade are summarized, which act as a catalyst for economic growth by minimizing transaction costs, implementing fintech solutions, and qualitative transformation of human capital. Based on statistical data for 2020–2025, a forecast model was built that confirmed the relationship between the volume of investments in digital infrastructure and the share of digitalization of international trade. It was proven that investments are a key regulator that determines the pace of transition to digital trade and ensures the economic stability of states - it was determined that 98.8% of the variation in the level of digitalization of trade is explained by changes in the volume of investments in digital infrastructure. Three development scenarios (baseline, optimistic, and pessimistic) were developed until 2030. The baseline scenario predicts an increase in the share of the digital segment in world exports to 23.7% by 2030; the optimistic scenario, based on investments in “breakthrough” technologies, predicts reaching 25.7%; the pessimistic scenario, which takes into account geopolitical risks, predicts an indicator of 21.7%, which confirms the irreversibility of global digital transformation. The study concludes that ignoring investment needs in the digital infrastructure of international trade will lead it to a pessimistic vector, where lost profits become a critical deterrent for global exports.

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