Modelling the impact of import dependence on the structure of employment in a developed economy: A case study of Germany

Анотація

Purpose. The study provides a comprehensive econometric analysis of the impact of import dependence on the sectoral structure of employment in a developed economy, using Germany as a case study. The relevance of the research is driven by the deepening integration of national economies into global value chains and the growing role of imports as a key determinant of labour market transformation. The purpose of the study is to deliver a quantitative assessment of the impact of import dependence on the industry-level structure of employment in the developed economy (Germany), accounting for threshold effects through the application of a dynamic threshold modelling approach. <br>Methodology. The empirical basis of the study is constructed using panel data for the period 1995–2022, covering 42 economic activities. The methodological framework is based on a dynamic threshold regression model, enabling the identification of nonlinear relationships between variables and the estimation of critical values of import dependence at which both the magnitude and direction of its impact on employment change. A bootstrap procedure is employed to ensure the statistical robustness of the estimates, facilitating the refinement of threshold parameters and the validation of their accuracy. <br>Findings. The findings confirm statistically significant threshold effects, indicating structural heterogeneity in the impact of import dependence on the labour market. The results show that crossing certain critical levels of import dependence is associated with changes in both the sign and magnitude of its effect on employment. Accordingly, three sectoral groups are identified: sectors with a predominantly negative impact (displacement effect), sectors with a positive impact (driven by participation in global production networks), and sectors with mixed or statistically insignificant effects. <br>Originality. The scientific contribution of the study lies in applying a dynamic threshold framework to the analysis of the relationship between import dependence and employment, allowing for capturing the nonlinear, asymmetric, and sectoral heterogeneous effects. <br>Practical value. The practical implications of the findings include providing an analytical basis for selective structural policies targeting sectors with high potential for integration into global value chains. The results are particularly relevant for transition and post-crisis economies, including Ukraine, where optimising import dependence and fostering employment are critical in the context of post-war economic recovery.

Класифікація

Ідентифікатори

Схожі роботи