SHEWHART’S CONTROL CHARTS IN THE TASKS OF DIAGNOSIS SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF TERRITORY

Анотація

Inconsistency and instability of planning processes are some of the important obstacles to achieving the goals of sustainable development of Ukraine today. This indicates the imperfection of the analytical function of the management system of sustainable development of the territory, which is associated with the forecasting and diagnosis of development processes. The thresholds of indicators for diagnosing the state of the territory by the level of stability (homeostasis) are fundamental, i.e. acceptable limit values, non-compliance (exceeding or not reaching) which leads to the emergence of destructive processes in the territory. The legislative approach is used in domestic practice to determine the threshold values of indicators, based on expert assessments of specialists. But the expert definition of these indicators is sufficiently subjective, which, in turn, does not preclude fundamental errors in diagnosing the state of the territory. In order to prevent subjectivism, it is advisable to use Shewhart control charts as a diagnostic tool to identify the uncontrolled state of the territory and answer the question: should or should not interfere with the system? The theory of control charts largely corresponds to the main provisions of the theories of sustainable development and «The Black Swan». Development is considered as a sequence of long periods in the theory of sustainable development, which is based on the basic principles of synergetic and nonlinear dynamics. These periods correspond to the stable states of the system (homeostasis), which are interrupted by periods of bifurcation (chaos). After a period of chaos, the system moves to the next qualitatively new steady state (attractor), the choice of which is usually determined by fluctuations (i.e., difficult to predict, new events, the so-called «Black Swans») at the bifurcation point. To study the problems of controllability of the process of sustainable development of the territory, the most suitable are Shewhart’s individuals control chart (X) and moving range (mR), which are used for periodic monitoring data and rapid detection of special causes (fluctuations). On the example of interpreting the results of XmR chart to diagnose the manageability of human development in Ukraine and Kuwait for 1990-2019 proved the feasibility of using a combined XmR chart in diagnosing the state of the territory on indicators or integrated indices that characterize various aspects of development.

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