Ukrainian-Chinese foreign trade relations: components of the justification for China’s participation in the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine

Анотація

In modern conditions, one of the determining factors constraining the development of Ukraine is the absence of a state policy of post-war reconstruction. An integral part of its justification is the foreign economic component, in the context of which the East European vector is a priority. At the same time, the East Asian vector is also very important: first of all, building strategically oriented mutually beneficial relations with the People’s Republic of China. China will become one of the key players in post-war reconstruction (despite the current non-acceptance of such an approach by the expert community). Therefore, the problem of analyzing foreign economic activity between Ukraine and China under martial law in Ukraine (such activity is predominantly carried out as foreign trade) arises. The purpose of the article is to conduct an economic and statistical analysis of Ukraine’s foreign trade operations with the PRC as a component of substantiating strategic directions of foreign economic activity in the context of forming a post-war reconstruction policy. The analysis conducted indicates a strong positive direct linear correlation, which is clearly traced between the import of goods from China to Ukraine and the following indicators of our country: nominal GDP, GDP per capita, the volume of products sold by industrial enterprises, personnel costs of enterprises, capital investments in retail trade and the provision of information services. As for the R&D and science expenditures of Ukraine, they have the strongest direct relationship with the volume of imports of Chinese goods (0.92). The correlation analysis conducted proved that with an increase in the volume of Chinese exports to Ukraine, all of the listed indicators will also grow. Already in war conditions, it is advisable for Ukraine to offer China specific projects for participation in large-scale post-war reconstruction programs, in addition to traditional cooperation in the agro-food sector, in the automotive, aircraft and shipbuilding industries and agricultural machinery. A special direction of future cooperation may be China’s participation in mineral-based industries (in particular, within the framework of special economic zones, the restoration of which will require the implementation of an effective post-war reconstruction state policy).

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