UKRAINE'S POSITIONING IN THE INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND ECONOMIC SYSTEM: GROWTH DRIVERS AND INTEGRATION SCENARIOS

Анотація

The article analyzes the strategic directions and practical aspects of transforming Ukraine's foreign trade policy in the context of global turbulence and the shifting paradigm of international economic cooperation. The relevance of the study is driven by the need to revise the model of Ukraine's integration into the world economy, transitioning from raw material specialization to active participation in global value chains, and adapting the trade strategy to the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic and military-political aggression. The purpose of the work is to substantiate the mechanisms for increasing the international competitiveness of the national economy through a combination of rational import substitution, digitalization, and multi-level macro-regional integration. Foreign trade is considered as a fundamental driver of economic recovery, where a key role is played not only by the liberalization of market access but also by deep technological cooperation. It is noted that traditional "openness at any cost" approaches and "just-in-time" logistics strategies proved vulnerable to global shocks, necessitating a transition to flexible models of supplier and market diversification. It is emphasized that despite significant potential, the realization of benefits from WTO membership and the Association Agreement with the EU is hindered by anti-export bias in tariff regulation and insufficient support for non-commodity exports. The author proposes scenarios for the prospective positioning of Ukraine in the system of international economic relations. In the sphere of structural transformation, a transition to a model of stimulating high-tech exports through production localization mechanisms and attracting investment into the digital and "green" economy is suggested. In the sphere of institutional integration, the expediency of forming a multi-level system of trade agreements is substantiated, combining basic non-preferential frameworks (WTO+ standards, digital trade, environmental norms) with deep preferential annexes regarding goods, services, and investments. In the sphere of strategic management, the importance of digitalization is highlighted as a factor that offsets the significance of labor costs and allows Ukraine to integrate into value chains through the outsourcing of high-tech tasks. A reform of customs and tariff regulation based on the calculation of the Effective Rate of Protection (ERP) is proposed to eliminate disproportions in the protection of intermediate and finished goods. In the context of the systemic crisis of international institutions, it is proven that Ukraine should initiate the creation of new coalitions with partner countries to promote shared interests within a reformed WTO. It is concluded that only a proactive geoeconomic strategy, which accounts for the potential of macro-regional partnership and the digital transformation of industry, will ensure the strengthening of economic sovereignty and the sustainable development of Ukraine's human capital in the global space.

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