FINANCIAL RESILIENCE OF UKRAINE’S AGRICULTURAL SECTOR UNDER WAR AND CLIMATE SHOCKS: STRUCTURAL IMBALANCES AND IMPERATIVES OF GREEN TRANSFORMATION

Анотація

The article provides a comprehensive analysis of the financial resilience of Ukraine’s agricultural sector over 1991–2025, considering the combined impact of war-related shocks, climate change, and institutional transformations associated with the transition to sustainable finance. Based on a long-term dynamic approach, three development phases are identified: post-Soviet disruption with financial undercapitalization and ecological debt (1991–1999), nonlinear recovery under an extensive “brown” growth model with the accumulation of structural and climate-related vulnerabilities (2000–2021), and war-induced destruction accompanied by the transformation of cyclical instability into a structural crisis (2022–2025). The study identifies key imbalances undermining financial resilience, including underinvestment, high production volatility, export dependence, the ESG gap, and degradation of natural capital. It is substantiated that environmental and climate factors have become direct determinants of access to finance, cost of capital, and long-term investment capacity. The concept of a “triple deficit” of financial support is developed, reflecting the simultaneous need to finance post-war recovery, complete modernization, and ensure green transformation. The research demonstrates the limitations of fiscal capacity under wartime conditions and argues for a transition toward a blended finance model integrating public, private, and international resources. The implementation of ESG-oriented financial instruments, risk-sharing mechanisms, and MRV infrastructure is identified as a key prerequisite for strengthening long-term resilience. The methodology combines historical-dynamic, comparative, and structural analysis with a review of EU and Ukrainian regulatory frameworks. Practical recommendations include the development of Agri-ESG credit products, green bonds, and climate adaptation funds, as well as differentiated financial mechanisms for various categories of agricultural producers and regions, ensuring inclusive and sustainable sectoral recovery.

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