Simulation of Credit Restructuring Impact on Household Financial Welfare in Crisis

Анотація

The study aims to investigate the effects of credit restructuring on household welfare during crises, focusing on deriving insights to manage and develop robust financial systems. The paper presents a simulation model based on the system dynamics approach, which delves into the difficulties of multiple loan restructuring strategies under various crisis scenarios, e.g., in a wartime economy, COVID-19 crisis, or a widespread financial crisis. The model illuminates the dynamics of borrowers' solvency, optimal timelines for restructuring, and the potential paths households take in the face of declining incomes or increased economic pressure. The study systematically reviews traditional and aggressive restructuring schemes and investigates the individual and combined effects on a household’s financial welfare. The findings reveal critical periods for initiating loan restructuring and the inadequacy of traditional methods involving up to 25% reduction in loan payments. The system-dynamics-based model offers a comprehensive analysis of the implications of credit restructuring on household welfare, e.g. budget incomes, expenses, and liquidity, particularly during system and local crises. Implementing the model can significantly reduce borrowers' likelihood of defaulting. It helps borrowers in crises and reduces bank risks. The proposed approach is universal and can be used to solve many problems associated with credit restructuring.

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