Research on instruments for stabilizing the country's financial system and stimulating the real sector of the Ukrainian economy

Анотація

The paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the mechanisms restricting financial market participants' access to cheap credit capital under the influence of regulatory factors. The destructive nature of static supervision, which provokes the credit crunch effect and systemic credit crunch, is investigated. Based on the official reporting of the National Bank of Ukraine and a representative sample of the 30 largest banks for the period 2021–2026, the transmission channels of liquidity restriction are mathematically formalized. The purpose of the paper is a comprehensive analysis of the regulatory impact of restrictions on the credit market of Ukraine and the justification of the transition from static (rigid) regulation to dynamic macroprudential supervision to overcome the effect of credit squeeze and prevent "credit famine" based on econometric modeling and empirical data of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU).The theoretical and methodological basis of the paper is the provisions of fundamental economic theory, monetary analysis and the concept of financial stability. In the process of research, systemic-structural, comparative and statistical-economic analysis were applied. The necessity of changing the supervisory paradigm is substantiated and the conceptual foundations of the transition to dynamic countercyclical regulation are developed. Practical recommendations for the NBU aimed at stabilizing the financial system and stimulating the real sector of the economy have been formed. The study confirms that the static paradigm of financial supervision exacerbates macroeconomic crises, provoking the effect of credit compression and a general "credit famine." The optimal tool for solving this dilemma is the transition to dynamic macroprudential regulation. The implementation of countercyclical capital management, forward-looking provisioning, and flexible LTV/DSTI limits can mitigate the threat of capital shortages during economic downturns. The implementation of the proposed recommendations for the NBU will ensure uninterrupted financing of the real sector and create a stable institutional platform for the post-war recovery of Ukraine's economy.

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