ВИКОРИСТАННЯ СТАТИСТИЧНИХ МЕТОДІВ ПРИ ПЛАНУВАННІ ТА ПРОГНОЗУВАННІ МАКРОЕКОНОМІЧНИХ ПОКАЗНИКІВ

Анотація

The scientific rationale for planning and forecasting the main indicators of macroeconomics in the conditions of the modern economy of Ukraine involves using of statistical methods.At the same time, the resulting feature is not subject to ranking, unlike the variation series, in statistical planning and forecasting of the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators.This article proposes statistical methods that can be used for planning and forecasting macroeconomic indicators, namely, the method of statistical equations of dependencies, the method of complex statistical coefficients, and regressioncorrelation analysis.The authors suggested comparing the actual and forecasted indicators to carry out the analysis of forecast errors, which provides a better result for planning and forecasting macroeconomic indicators.Modern practice and past periods experience show that only through forecasting and planning is it possible to maintain balance between macroeconomic indicators.Having considered the statistical methods of forecasting and planning, the following are highlighted in the work: econometric modeling, expert methods, extrapolation methods.But their application depends on a number of factors, namely: forecast information, planning limits, implementation of programmatic and strategic information in forecast documents.During the research it was found out that using the method of statistical equations of dependencies allows to study changes in dynamics and reducing the level of error of the forecast period.This method allows to obtain reasonable results of dynamics levels without using exponential quantities.The method that are proposed makes it possible to assess the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators and can be used for planning and forecasting the activity of subjects of the economic and financial sphere and macroeconomic variables.Further scientific research on this problem will be aimed at adapting modern methods and techniques of planning and forecasting macroeconomic indicators to the conditions of national economic development in Ukraine.

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