Signal approach for determining the level and assessing financial security

Анотація

Dedicated to the study of the possibility of using the signal approach to determine the level and assess financial security. It is noted that early warning systems based on qualitative analysis, econometric modeling and non-parametric models based on the approach are called upon to identify threats, identify accumulated and possible imbalances, in order to further level the effect of factors that can undermine the financial security of the country. To predict the emergence of threats to the financial condition of Ukraine, a regression model of the growth rate of the Consolidated Budget of Ukraine (as an indicator of the public finances of Ukraine) was developed and proposed, which reflects the dependence of the probability of a decrease in this indicator on a number of security indicators, and its approbation was carried out for the conditions of Ukraine. The selected set of indicators for identifying threats to the financial security of Ukraine provided the basis for building and forming a base of scenarios for the possible behavior of the economy under the influence of external factors for 2022-2023. The authors have identified corrective measures of economic policy on the part of macroeconomic regulation bodies in order to stop the inertial development of the forecast situation.

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