Decision Complexity and Consistency in Choice Under Risk

Анотація

A long history of research has explored the complexity and management of risky environments (e.g., Johnson & Bruce, 1994; Slovic, 2000). However, very little research explored the psychological factors (e.g., readiness, context, and psychological reactions to normative rules) underlying this complexity. Typically the content of psychological readiness, as proposed in sport and work psychology, is based on physical and emotional parameters. In contrast, this research shows the cognitive mechanism underlying psychological readiness (sensitivity to context, computational rationality). In order to maintain the effectiveness of complex risky systems, managers are expected to implement (i) relevant knowledge and experience, and (ii) pre-designed normative rules and therefore to maintain accuracy in decision outputs/ performance. Accordingly, in one experiment we explored the influence of context, content, and computational rationality on decision consistency and psychological readiness.

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