The state of Ukraine's banking system in wartime: stability issues and strategic development guidelines

Анотація

The article describes the current state of Ukraine's banking system in the context of the ongoing armed conflict, which has significantly affected the macroeconomic environment and the functioning of the country's financial sector. The author focuses on the profound transformations that took place in the structure of the banking system in 2021-2024, in particular, the reduction in the number of solvent banks, the growing role of state-owned financial institutions, and the decline in the share of banks with foreign capital. The author analyzes the dynamics of changes in the ownership structure of banks due to both the withdrawal of weak players from the market and the implementation of the state support policy for critical sectors of the economy. The paper analyzes changes in the structure of banking sector assets, in particular, a decrease in the share of lending to the real sector and households against the background of growing investments in government securities and deposit certificates of the National Bank of Ukraine. This transformation indicates a reorientation of the banking system to support liquidity and finance the state's budgetary needs, which is a response to the increased risks and uncertainty of wartime. The article highlights a set of anti-crisis measures implemented by the National Bank of Ukraine in 2022-2024, including liquidity support, temporary currency restrictions, enhanced monitoring of the financial condition of banks, and the development of macroprudential regulation. The author emphasizes the role of the state in ensuring financial stability, protecting the interests of depositors, and maintaining the functionality of the payment system in extreme conditions. A number of key problems threatening the stability of the banking system have been identified: an increase in the share of non-performing assets, concentration of credit risks, restrictions on financing the real sector. The article emphasizes the adaptability of the banking sector, the gradual increase in the deposit base, the introduction of digital technologies and the improvement of risk management systems. It is noted that the further development of the banking system of Ukraine should be based on strategic guidelines that take into account the need to support economic recovery, increase financial stability, expand access to financial services and strengthen confidence in banking institutions in the post-war period.

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