Assessing the effectiveness of the indicative cost mechanism in Ukraine’s higher education system under martial law

Анотація

This article examines the effectiveness of the indicative cost mechanism in Ukraine’s higher education system amid martial law and intensifying regional disparities in the security and economic conditions under which higher education institutions operate. The relevance of the study stems from the need to assess the effectiveness of the current regulatory mechanism amid the transformation of the regional structure of demand for educational services, the growth of inter-regional competition, and widening disparities in the financial capacity of higher education institutions. Attention is paid to determining the impact of the indicative cost mechanism on the competitive environment and the regional balance of the higher education system. The methodological framework of the study is based on comparative, regression and scenario analysis methods. As part of the study, a system of criteria has been developed to assess the effectiveness of the indicative cost mechanism, covering regulatory, competitive, financial, regional and adaptive components. To quantitatively assess the impact of the regulatory mechanism, a multiple regression model has been constructed, with the dynamics of the contract-based student cohort in higher education institutions defined as the dependent variable. The results of the analysis indicate that the level of indicative cost and military risks have a statistically significant negative impact on the dynamics of the contract workforce. It has been established that, under martial law, the effectiveness of the indicative cost mechanism depends significantly on the regional security and economic context. It has been demonstrated that the failure to adapt the regulatory mechanism to the uneven operating conditions of higher education institutions creates an asymmetric regulatory impact and intensifies inter-regional disparities. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the development of a model to assess the effectiveness of the indicative cost mechanism, combining regional, regression, and scenario-based approaches. The practical significance of the results lies in the possibility of using the proposed approach to improve mechanisms for the state regulation of tuition fees and to formulate regionally adapted policies in higher education. Keywords: indicative cost price; higher education; state regulation; regional disparities; funding of higher education institutions; martial law; regression modelling; scenario modelling.

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