Design thinking as a tool for risk assessment of investment projects in times of crisis

Анотація

The concept of assessing the risks of an investment project in a crisis based on design thinking is proposed, with the definition of a chain of risk assessment artifacts, which is carried out by performing the main stages of design thinking: empathy, focus, idea, prototyping, testing. Each level of artifacts from the point of view of their obtaining using design thinking tools should be considered from two points of view: cognitive – within the framework of determining the semantic component (knowledge structure) of content templates for products, investment projects, strategies, risk registers and risk response plans, as well as their mutual influence and impact on achieving the goals of the investment project, and organizational – in the context of the distribution of roles and responsibilities between the participants of the investment project involved in assessing risks in a crisis. Design thinking methods and tools are presented, which can be useful for assessing project risks in a crisis. They can be used for different parts with different levels of detail of the stages of the investment life cycle, including such types of risks as production, market, environmental, etc. Options for creating an effort-impact matrix for various risks of investment projects in a crisis are presented, which can be used to assess the effectiveness of risk reduction activities both at the initial stage of the investment project and at the stage of project implementation after the product is released to the target market. An effort/impact assessment is presented for three types of products with three variations of consumer attributes. Effort is the estimated costs of developing a product, managing its production, and introducing it into the target market niche. Effect is the projected amount of revenue from the sale of a product with an appropriate set of consumer characteristics within the selected planning horizon. When implementing the proposed approach and the developed tools, it is recommended to focus on solving small, compact risk analysis tasks that will give a quick result and will be noticeable in the organization. When choosing tools at each stage of design thinking, special attention should be paid to user research, which involves in-depth and systematic work with potential clients of the investment project.

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