SWOT analysis of Russia's Nuclear Diplomacy in Africa: 2014-2024

Анотація

This study examines Russia's nuclear diplomacy strategy in Africa during 2014–2024 as a multifaceted instrument of soft power and geopolitical influence amid Western sanctions and the emergence of a multipolar world order. The research encompasses the comprehensive export of peaceful nuclear technologies—including turnkey nuclear power plants (Egypt, Nigeria), small modular reactors, nuclear science centers (Zambia, Rwanda, Ethiopia), regulatory framework development, and large-scale personnel training programs—and traces the strategy's evolution from a reactive response to sanctions toward institutionalization through Russia–Africa summits (2019, 2023). Methodologically, the study adapts classical SWOT analysis—traditionally employed in business strategy—to evaluate state-level foreign policy, complemented by systems analysis, comparative assessment of country cases, and review of primary documents (Rosatom contracts, summit declarations). The scientific novelty rests on three contributions: (1) methodological adaptation of SWOT for structured analysis of technological, economic, and geopolitical interlinkages in nuclear diplomacy; (2) the first comprehensive decade-long analysis in Russian scholarship covering the full transformation cycle from post-2014 sanctions response to the 2024 strategic pivot toward small modular reactors; and (3) identification of a core dialectical contradiction—Russia's integrated "turnkey" model simultaneously constitutes its principal strength and vulnerability, generating high capital intensity and dependence on partner regimes' political stability. The main conclusion posits that the sustainable success of Russia's nuclear diplomacy in Africa depends not on Rosatom's technological superiority per se, but on strategic adaptability through technological diversification (small and floating reactors), flexible financing schemes involving regional institutions (Afreximbank), and deeper integration of nuclear projects into Africa's broader socio-economic development agenda.

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