MODELING THE IMPACT OF ENTERPRISE RELOCATION ON THE SPATIAL STRUCTURE OF UKRAINE'S REGIONAL ECONOMY

Анотація

The chapter examines the phenomenon of mass enterprise relocation in Ukraine triggered by the full-scale military invasion of the Russian Federation in February 2022. The study develops an original methodological framework for modeling the spatial consequences of business migration on the structure of regional economies. The proposed approach integrates instruments of spatial econometrics, gravity modeling, and the new economic geography paradigm, enabling a quantitative assessment of centrifugal and centripetal forces acting on productive capital in conditions of armed conflict. The chapter substantiates an author's multi-factor spatial equilibrium model that accounts for transport and logistics accessibility, agglomeration externalities, labor market polarization, and institutional risk differentials across regions. Empirical estimation is performed using panel data for 24 Ukrainian oblasts over the period 2020–2023, supplemented by geo-coded enterprise registry data from the Unified State Register of Legal Entities. The results reveal a pronounced westward shift of economic mass, a deepening of the center–periphery divide, and the emergence of new spatial concentration clusters in Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, and Vinnytsia oblasts. The chapter identifies threshold effects beyond which relocated enterprises significantly alter regional labor markets, investment flows, and fiscal capacity. Policy recommendations are formulated for strategic spatial planning of Ukraine's post-war economic reconstruction that leverage identified agglomeration potentials while mitigating the risks of hyper-concentration.

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