Foreign state debt in the international finance system: assessment criteria and current status of Ukraine's foreign debt

Анотація

The paper examines the economic nature, structure and functional role of the state's external debt in the international finance system as an important instrument for attracting financial resources and at the same time a factor of macroeconomic vulnerability. Particular attention is paid to the analysis of the components of the country's external debt in accordance with the World Bank methodology, according to which public and state-guaranteed debt, private sector obligations, as well as short-term and long-term debt instruments are distinguished. This allows for a comprehensive assessment of the structure of the debt portfolio and the identification of potential sources of financial risks. The minimum standard model for assessing the state's external debt dependence, formed on the basis of World Bank approaches, is considered, which is based on a system of key debt sustainability indicators, in particular the ratio of gross external debt to GDP and exports of goods and services, as well as the ratio of gold and foreign exchange reserves to total external public debt, which characterize the country's solvency and its ability to timely fulfill debt obligations. The current state of Ukraine's external debt has been analyzed in the context of increasing global economic imbalances, financial instability and martial law, which significantly affect the dynamics of debt processes. The main trends in the formation and servicing of external debt, as well as structural changes in the sources of its financing, have been identified. The level of the state's external debt dependence has been assessed, the risks of increasing the debt burden and their potential impact on the country's financial security have been identified. Based on the research, the key factors influencing the formation and dynamics of Ukraine's external debt have been identified, and directions for improving the mechanisms for managing its external public debt have been substantiated, in particular in terms of increasing the efficiency of debt policy, optimizing the structure of borrowing and strengthening cooperation with international financial organizations, taking into account the best world experience.

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