Forecasting the Sectoral-Regional Development of the Intellectual Segment of the Global Economy

Анотація

The article is aimed at building a forecast for the development of the intellectual segment of the global economy for 2019-2028 in terms of high-tech sectors and regions. Based on the analysis of statistical data of the countries’ economies on the volume of high-tech exports, gross costs in fundamental research and applied developments, the number of registered patent families with details by sectors of the «triad» (information and communication technologies, pharmaceutical industry, aerospace sector) the trend of sectoral-regional development in 2000-2018 is determined and a forecast for the next contiguous period is elaborated. In the course of research, the author identified a significant differentiation of countries according to the models of development of sectors of the «triad», as well as by the nature of the trend line in the time periods 2000-2009, 2009-2018, and 2000-2018. Further development of the countries of Asia (China, Taiwan, South Korea) and the United States with a gradual shift in the emphasis of technological leadership in favor of Taiwan are forecasted. The growth forecast for high-tech exports of the aerospace sector is optimistic. In the ICT sector, a significant dependence of the volume of high-tech exports on the positive dynamics of patent families is identified. In the pharmaceutical industry of European countries, the relationship between these indicators is predominantly inverse. Prospects for further scientific research in this direction are to determine the nature and extent of the pandemic factor’s influence on the dynamics of the development of the intellectual segment of the global economy, as well as to adjust the forecast of sectoral-regional development of the intellectual segment of the global economy.

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