Analysis of the influence of risk factors on the efficiency of innovation-investment projects in construction

Анотація

Introduction. Despite extensive research in the field of innovation, it is necessary to point out the lack of methodological approaches to assess the efficiency of innovation activity of enterprises, although a wide range of recommendations based on existing approaches have been made to address certain aspects of these issues, but they require further development, deepening and systematization. including those taking into account risk factors. The importance of addressing the issues of improving existing methods of assessing the effectiveness of investment in innovation, developing methodological approaches to quantitative assessment of the level of innovation risk and uncertainty, finding ways to choose between alternative options for investing in innovative projects, defines the problem of evaluating the effectiveness of innovative projects. The purpose of the study is to substantiate the organizational provisions of the analysis of the influence of risk factors on the effectiveness of innovative investment projects in construction. In order to achieve this goal, we are tasked with: determining the impact of risk factors on the effectiveness of innovation and investment projects; consider the use of cognitive risk modeling of an investment project. Research methods. To achieve this goal, the article uses the following general scientific and specific research methods: analysis and synthesis - to improve the interpretation of the concept of “innovation risk”; systematic approach - to clarify the economic content of the concept of “efficiency of innovation-investment projects”; expert evaluation - to calculate the integral values of risk in the implementation of innovative investment projects in construction. Results. The application of cognitive modeling methodology in the process of analyzing the effectiveness of innovation investment projects is substantiated, it is established that the use of cognitive modeling technology can be considered as one of the possible options for the development of methodological tools for risk assessment of innovative projects in terms of time constraints and the need to take into account the complex system of interconnectedness the number of heterogeneous risk factors. Discussion. Prospects for further development of the research are structuring and risk assessment, depending on the level of influence on the effectiveness of innovation- investment projects, taking into account organizational, management, production and financial and economic risks. The use of cognitive modeling technology should be considered as one of the possible ways of developing methodological tools for assessing the risks of innovative projects in the conditions of limited time and the need to take into account the complex system of interrelationships of a large number of heterogeneous risk factors. Further scientific research towards the analysis of the influence of risk factors on the effectiveness of innovation- investment projects in construction should be taken as a basis for the development of an adequate anti-risk mechanism for managing the efficiency of innovation-investment projects.

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