ECONOMETRIC FORECAST OF AGRIBUSINESS ACTIVITY IN CONTEXT OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS’ ATTRACTION

Анотація

The main task of economic processes projection in agricultural enterprises is more relevant and vital in recent years with application of applied econometric methods and tools. In represented research paper, these methods are used to forecast primarily economic indicators of LLC Agrol and its activity where foreign direct investments (FDI) were attracted from Poland. The linear trend model, the parabolic trend model and the exponential trend model were elaborated from the period from 2000 to 2009 in this scientific study using applied statistical tools STATGRAFICS and EXCEL spreadsheets. And with assistance of these models forecast for key economic indicators on the basis of data of essential indicators of LLC Agrol that is located in village of Zhornyska, Yavoriv district, Lviv region, around 55 kilometres away from the border with Poland 2010 and 2011 was made. All models with probability =0,95 are adequate experimental data for researched 2000-2009 years, that allow to make the forecast of the main economic indicators of the researched enterprise in terms of FDI attraction in the region by these models for 2010 and 2011 years. Moreover, it should be noticed, because of small amount of input data, analysis of regression equations coefficients have more qualitative rather than quantitative influence upon resulting variable.

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