DEVELOPMENT OF CONCEPTUAL PRINCIPLES OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC FORECASTING

Анотація

The purpose of the paper examines the development of conceptual foundations of socio-economic forecasting. The subject of the study is socio-economic forecasting. The aim of the study is to carry out the conceptual analysis of social and economic forecasting. The theoretical and methodological basis of the study are the fundamental provisions of the theory of public administration, strategic planning, the work of domestic and foreign scientists in public administration, public administration, methodology of public administration science, forecasting, strategic planning. The choice of the subject of research was made by analyzing the development of forecasting in Ukraine and scientific opinion on the research problem. The study used general and special methods, in particular: analysis and synthesis in the formation of the theoretical basis of the study; analytical approach in the selection of scientific information on the research topic; comparative and logical-semantic methods used in the study of the conceptual apparatus and clarification of the concept of forecasting; systemic and historical in the analysis of the origins of the formation of the science of socio-economic forecasting; modeling method in identifying the principles of socio-economic forecasting; generalization – in developing the conclusions of the study. The analysis of the sources of formation of conceptual bases of social and economic forecasting are carried out. The origins of the formation of socio-economic forecasting are analyzed, in particular, the scientific contribution of I. Bestuzhev-Lada, M. Kondratiev, B. Lazarev, V. Lysychkin, N. Likarchuk, V. Matvienko, J. Forrester, J. Furastier, W. Rostow, S. Teleshun and others. Through the prism of the conceptual views of scientists who studied forecasting formed the concept of “forecasting of socio-economic development”. This is the process of developing forecasts of social and economic development of the country, certain sectors of the economy or individual administrative-territorial units, the possible state of the economy and social sphere in the future, as well as alternative ways and terms of achieving parameters of economic and social development. Socioeconomic forecasting based on scientific methods of cognition of socioeconomic phenomena. The principles and methodology of socio-economic forecasting are highlighted. From the variety of principles of socioeconomic forecasting can be distinguished those that distinguish forecasting from other management functions and indicate its exceptional features. These are the principles of probability, verifiability. Other principles point to the close connection between forecasting and management, namely: systematicity, coherence, continuity, integrity, scientificity and others. The methodology of socio-economic forecasting and application of methods at the stages of forecasting are considered. At the first stage, the problem is studied, which is best done using scanning methods, brainstorming. The second stage involves a qualitative analysis of the problem. This analysis can be performed using the method of cross-exposure. The third stage is the writing of scripts, using the method of analysis of hierarchies, the method of writing scripts. The fourth is the analysis and selection of scenarios using the Melissa Schilling Technological Prediction Method. This method considered the most effective because it focuses on the practical component.

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