The “Shadow Fleet” as an Element of Sanctions-Adapted Maritime Oil Logistics: Limits of Resilience

Анотація

The article examines the resilience of sanctions-adapted maritime oil logistics, in which the shadow fleet is considered not as an independent source of resilience but as one element in the restructuring of maritime oil trade under sanctions pressure. The study focuses on why restrictions against individual vessels, flags, management companies and intermediaries increase costs and operational opacity but do not always lead to the disruption of export chains. The methodology is based on systemic analysis, the comparative-historical method and functional analysis of sanctions pressure. These methods make it possible to examine vessels, insurance, payments, ports and demand as interrelated elements of a single chain, and to compare the Russian, Iranian and Venezuelan cases. This approach also helps explain why export chains may continue to operate even when individual vessels, flags or intermediaries are sanctioned. Special attention is paid to the relationship between substitutable and systemically important elements of sanctions-adapted logistics. The novelty of the research lies in the systematization of these elements according to their degree of substitutability and their role in maintaining shipments. The article shows that individual vessels, flags, names, management companies and intermediaries are comparatively easier to replace, whereas recognised or acceptable insurance coverage, payment infrastructure, port access and a major buyer are of systemic importance. The main conclusion is that the resilience of such logistics is determined not by the number of individual tankers, but by the preservation of the conditions without which a maritime shipment cannot be completed: demand, payment channels, acceptable insurance coverage and discharge opportunities.

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