An outline of the assessment of price stability and monetary policy in Poland against the background of the European union and the Euro area in the face of a military crisis

Анотація

The main objective of the article is to assess price stability and changes in the NBP interest rates in the face of the Russia-Ukraine military crisis. The study consists of three main parts. The first part analyses price stability in Poland since the systemic transformation. An attempt was made to diagnose the 'inflationary cycle' that has taken place in the last three decades. In the second part, price stability in Poland in 2022 was assessed against the background of previous years, taking into account the euro area and the EU. An attempt was made to indicate the main reasons for the sudden increase in inflation, in particular in the face of the conditions resulting from the military crisis. The third part assesses the decisions of the Monetary Policy Council regarding the changes in interest rates in crisis conditions. An attempt was made to indicate the prospects for further actions of the monetary authorities in Poland. It should be noted that the research carried out in the study is only of an introductory nature to this subject. It should be treated as a contribution to further in-depth analyses, including the use of more advanced statistical and econometric methods, bearing in mind that the military crisis has not been resolved yet and its effects will be long-term.

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