MODELING THE EVOLUTION OF AN AGGRESSIVE TOTALITARIAN REGIME: A GEOMETRIC APPROACH

Анотація

The article is devoted to the methodology of modelling the evolution of an aggressive totalitarian regime. The methodology is grounded on the macroeconomic functions and their geometric reflection. Several models are built and analyzed in the article, such as the socio-political, military-economic and socio-economic evolution of totalitarian society; evolution of labour potential; goods’ net exports and production capacity of the country with a variable level of nationalization of the economy; changing economic potential during the war between a large totalitarian country and a small democracy country. The nowadays totalitarian regime (similar to the previous one) is based on the nationalization of the economy and the manipulation of information. The nationalization isn’t total now, but the means of manipulation have improved significantly. The authors suggested that the reduction of repression in a totalitarian country is not a sign of its liberalization. The economic growth leads to the impoverishment of the population, and economic crises – to its disqualification in quasi-market circumstances. Together they strengthen the regime's social base. High prices for low-tech goods increase the level of nationalization of the economy and, consequently, reduce the country's productive potential. Specialization in low-tech exports puts it in a "trap of nationalization", where the positive trade balance becomes impossible to even with lower levels of government regulation. Deteriorating global conditions for trade in low-tech goods create a situation of uncertainty when the level of nationalization can both fall and rise. The excess of maximum allowable losses over the minimum possible losses of a large totalitarian country becomes the "trigger" for open aggression. The fundamental asymmetry like the losses for the military-and-economic potential of a large totalitarian country and a small democratic country is the peculiarity of the clash between them.

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